Runners on base do not change how he is hit
58.3% of the contact against Nelson with a runner in scoring position is hit hard, against 43.5% with the bases empty.
120 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 611 with the bases empty.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Nelson's curveball leaves the bat at 93.8 mph, against 86.8 off his cutter.
73 and 76 of them thrown.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.0 mph off the bat against Nelson, 15th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 454th in MLB.
The shape of the contact off him says how he gets outs
29.5% of the contact against Nelson is on the ground and 50% of it is in the air.
132 tracked batted balls allowed.
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Nelson averages 92.8 mph across his arsenal, 90th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 54th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
46.2% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 20th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 431st in MLB.
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Nelson lives in the strike zone: 47.5% of his pitches are in it, 88th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 65th in MLB.
Both sides hit him about the same
49.2% of the contact right-handers make against Nelson is hit hard, against 43.7% of what left-handers make.
336 pitches to right-handed hitters, 395 to left-handed hitters.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .360 expected average against them, against .316 on his fastballs.
187 of his breaking balls thrown.
Hitters tend to hit him to one part of the field
46.6% of the balls put in play against Nelson have gone to centre field.
62 of 133 located batted balls allowed.
The home runs are what is undoing his season
Nelson has given up 9 tracked home runs, 5 of them to right field, the longest 436 feet.
9 tracked home runs allowed in 2026.
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,361 rpm, 68th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 68th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 170th in MLB.
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The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
Runners on base do not change how he is hit
58.3% of the contact against Nelson with a runner in scoring position is hit hard, against 43.5% with the bases empty.
120 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 611 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Nelson's curveball leaves the bat at 93.8 mph, against 86.8 off his cutter.
73 and 76 of them thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.0 mph off the bat against Nelson, 15th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 454th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
46.2% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 20th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 431st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The shape of the contact off him says how he gets outs
29.5% of the contact against Nelson is on the ground and 50% of it is in the air.
132 tracked batted balls allowed.
Hitters tend to hit him to one part of the field
46.6% of the balls put in play against Nelson have gone to centre field.
62 of 133 located batted balls allowed.
The home runs are what is undoing his season
Nelson has given up 9 tracked home runs, 5 of them to right field, the longest 436 feet.
9 tracked home runs allowed in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Nelson averages 92.8 mph across his arsenal, 90th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 54th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Nelson lives in the strike zone: 47.5% of his pitches are in it, 88th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 65th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
Both sides hit him about the same
49.2% of the contact right-handers make against Nelson is hit hard, against 43.7% of what left-handers make.
336 pitches to right-handed hitters, 395 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .360 expected average against them, against .316 on his fastballs.
187 of his breaking balls thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,361 rpm, 68th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 68th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 170th in MLB.
Diamondbacks
Career team 2022–2026