One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Nelson's 4-seam fastball carries 18.5 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
436 thrown, averaging 96.2 mph.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Nelson's curveball leaves the bat at 93.8 mph, against 86.8 off his cutter.
73 and 76 of them thrown.
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Nelson averages 92.8 mph across his arsenal, 90th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 54th in MLB.
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Nelson lives in the strike zone: 47.5% of his pitches are in it, 88th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 65th in MLB.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Nelson's 4-seam fastball averages 96.2 mph, and has touched 99.2.
436 thrown, 59.6% of his pitches.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Nelson goes to the 4-seam fastball: 66.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 56.6% the rest of the time.
220 two-strike pitches in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
15.9 mph separates Nelson's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 96.2 against 80.3.
436 and 73 of them respectively.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Nelson's fastball averages 96.0 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 95.0 past his 75th.
176 early fastballs, 76 late ones.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.0 mph off the bat against Nelson, 15th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 454th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Nelson works with 4 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Slider, Cutter and Curveball. The 4-seam fastball is 59.6% of everything he throws.
731 classified pitches in 2026.
He lives on one side of the plate
Nelson works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 2.4 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
730 located pitches in 2026.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .360 expected average against them, against .316 on his fastballs.
187 of his breaking balls thrown.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Nelson throws a fastball 80.5% of the time, against 70% when he is ahead.
200 pitches behind in the count, 207 ahead.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Nelson releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 60 degrees above horizontal and 1.0 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
730 tracked release points, averaging 6.1 feet off the ground.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
46.2% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 20th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 431st in MLB.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Nelson lands 51.1% of his fastballs in the zone and only 38.2% of his breaking balls.
526 of his fastballs, 187 of his breaking balls.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Nelson's curveball spins at 2,697 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
73 thrown in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Nelson puts 64.5% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 49.8% when he is ahead.
200 located pitches behind, 207 ahead.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Nelson throws 45% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 48% with the bases empty.
120 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 611 with the bases empty.
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,361 rpm, 68th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 68th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 170th in MLB.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Nelson throws the curveball 17.5% of the time against left-handers and 1.2% against right-handers.
336 pitches to right-handers, 395 to left-handers.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
21.2% of Nelson's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
155 of 730 located pitches.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Nelson releases the ball 6.6 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
575 tracked pitches in 2026.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Nelson has thrown 18 changeups this season, 2.5% of his pitches, at 95.7 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
731 classified pitches in 2026.
Show more
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Nelson's 4-seam fastball carries 18.5 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
436 thrown, averaging 96.2 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Nelson's curveball leaves the bat at 93.8 mph, against 86.8 off his cutter.
73 and 76 of them thrown.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Nelson's 4-seam fastball averages 96.2 mph, and has touched 99.2.
436 thrown, 59.6% of his pitches.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
15.9 mph separates Nelson's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 96.2 against 80.3.
436 and 73 of them respectively.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Nelson works with 4 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Slider, Cutter and Curveball. The 4-seam fastball is 59.6% of everything he throws.
731 classified pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Nelson's curveball spins at 2,697 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
73 thrown in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Nelson throws the curveball 17.5% of the time against left-handers and 1.2% against right-handers.
336 pitches to right-handers, 395 to left-handers.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Nelson has thrown 18 changeups this season, 2.5% of his pitches, at 95.7 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
731 classified pitches in 2026.
Show more
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Nelson averages 92.8 mph across his arsenal, 90th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 54th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Nelson lives in the strike zone: 47.5% of his pitches are in it, 88th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 65th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Nelson goes to the 4-seam fastball: 66.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 56.6% the rest of the time.
220 two-strike pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Nelson throws a fastball 80.5% of the time, against 70% when he is ahead.
200 pitches behind in the count, 207 ahead.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Nelson puts 64.5% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 49.8% when he is ahead.
200 located pitches behind, 207 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Nelson's fastball averages 96.0 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 95.0 past his 75th.
176 early fastballs, 76 late ones.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Nelson releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 60 degrees above horizontal and 1.0 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
730 tracked release points, averaging 6.1 feet off the ground.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Nelson releases the ball 6.6 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
575 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.0 mph off the bat against Nelson, 15th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 454th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
46.2% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 20th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 431st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on one side of the plate
Nelson works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 2.4 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
730 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
21.2% of Nelson's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
155 of 730 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .360 expected average against them, against .316 on his fastballs.
187 of his breaking balls thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Nelson lands 51.1% of his fastballs in the zone and only 38.2% of his breaking balls.
526 of his fastballs, 187 of his breaking balls.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Nelson throws 45% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 48% with the bases empty.
120 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 611 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,361 rpm, 68th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 68th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 170th in MLB.
Diamondbacks
Career team 2022–2026