One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Nelson's 4-seam fastball carries 18.6 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
784 thrown, averaging 96.4 mph.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Nelson's 4-seam fastball averages 96.4 mph, and has touched 99.2.
784 thrown, 57.1% of his pitches.
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Nelson averages 92.8 mph across his arsenal, 90th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 54th in MLB.
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Nelson lives in the strike zone: 47.5% of his pitches are in it, 88th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 65th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
15.5 mph separates Nelson's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 96.4 against 80.9.
784 and 121 of them respectively.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Nelson goes to the 4-seam fastball: 63.9% of his two-strike pitches, against 54.1% the rest of the time.
413 two-strike pitches in 2026.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.0 mph off the bat against Nelson, 15th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 454th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Nelson works with 4 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Slider, Cutter and Curveball. The 4-seam fastball is 57.1% of everything he throws.
1374 classified pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Nelson releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 62 degrees above horizontal and 0.9 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
1373 tracked release points, averaging 6.1 feet off the ground.
He lives on one side of the plate
Nelson works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 2.8 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
1373 located pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Nelson throws a fastball 79.3% of the time, against 67.1% when he is ahead.
343 pitches behind in the count, 419 ahead.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .360 expected average against them, against .316 on his fastballs.
187 of his breaking balls thrown.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
46.2% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 20th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 431st in MLB.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Nelson throws a strike on the first pitch 65.3% of the time.
372 plate appearances started in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Nelson's curveball spins at 2,656 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
121 thrown in 2026.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Nelson lands 51.1% of his fastballs in the zone and only 38.2% of his breaking balls.
526 of his fastballs, 187 of his breaking balls.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Nelson's fastball averages 96.1 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 95.4 past his 75th.
346 early fastballs, 164 late ones.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Nelson throws 45% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 48% with the bases empty.
120 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 611 with the bases empty.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Nelson throws the slider 27.8% of the time against right-handers and 11.7% against left-handers.
629 pitches to right-handers, 745 to left-handers.
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,361 rpm, 68th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 68th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 170th in MLB.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Nelson releases the ball 6.7 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
1218 tracked pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Nelson puts 60.3% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 48.7% when he is ahead.
343 located pitches behind, 419 ahead.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Nelson has thrown 36 sinkers this season, 2.6% of his pitches, at 95.4 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
1374 classified pitches in 2026.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Nelson's 4-seam fastball carries 18.6 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
784 thrown, averaging 96.4 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Nelson's 4-seam fastball averages 96.4 mph, and has touched 99.2.
784 thrown, 57.1% of his pitches.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
15.5 mph separates Nelson's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 96.4 against 80.9.
784 and 121 of them respectively.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Nelson works with 4 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Slider, Cutter and Curveball. The 4-seam fastball is 57.1% of everything he throws.
1374 classified pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Nelson's curveball spins at 2,656 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
121 thrown in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Nelson throws the slider 27.8% of the time against right-handers and 11.7% against left-handers.
629 pitches to right-handers, 745 to left-handers.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Nelson has thrown 36 sinkers this season, 2.6% of his pitches, at 95.4 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
1374 classified pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Nelson averages 92.8 mph across his arsenal, 90th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 90th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 54th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Nelson lives in the strike zone: 47.5% of his pitches are in it, 88th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 65th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Nelson goes to the 4-seam fastball: 63.9% of his two-strike pitches, against 54.1% the rest of the time.
413 two-strike pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Nelson throws a fastball 79.3% of the time, against 67.1% when he is ahead.
343 pitches behind in the count, 419 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Nelson throws a strike on the first pitch 65.3% of the time.
372 plate appearances started in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Nelson puts 60.3% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 48.7% when he is ahead.
343 located pitches behind, 419 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.0 mph off the bat against Nelson, 15th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 454th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
46.2% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 20th percentile.
731 pitches in 2026. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 431st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Nelson releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 62 degrees above horizontal and 0.9 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
1373 tracked release points, averaging 6.1 feet off the ground.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Nelson's fastball averages 96.1 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 95.4 past his 75th.
346 early fastballs, 164 late ones.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Nelson releases the ball 6.7 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
1218 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on one side of the plate
Nelson works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 2.8 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
1373 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .360 expected average against them, against .316 on his fastballs.
187 of his breaking balls thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Nelson lands 51.1% of his fastballs in the zone and only 38.2% of his breaking balls.
526 of his fastballs, 187 of his breaking balls.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Nelson throws 45% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 48% with the bases empty.
120 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 611 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,361 rpm, 68th percentile in the league.
731 pitches in 2026. 68th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 170th in MLB.
Diamondbacks