The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a submarine slot, about -20 degrees above horizontal and 1.5 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
284 tracked release points, averaging 3.8 feet off the ground.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 93.8% of the time, against 44.9% when he is ahead.
65 pitches behind in the count, 89 ahead.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sinker moves 16.6 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
170 thrown, averaging 91.3 mph.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .344 expected average against them, against .248 on his offspeed pitches.
185 of his fastballs thrown.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.07 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
284 located pitches in 2026.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 49.1% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 42.6% of his pitches to left-handers.
169 pitches to right-handed hitters, 115 to left-handed hitters.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 3 pitches: Sinker, Changeup and Sweeper. The sinker is 59.9% of everything he throws.
284 classified pitches in 2026.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the changeup: 31.5% of his two-strike pitches, against 16.9% the rest of the time.
89 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Kelly lives in the strike zone: 46.5% of his pitches are in it, 84th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 84th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 89th in MLB.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's sinker averages 91.3 mph, and has touched 93.4.
170 thrown, 59.9% of his pitches.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Kelly's stuff spins at 2,056 rpm, 13th percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 13th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 467th in MLB.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 63.1% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 36% when he is ahead.
65 located pitches behind, 89 ahead.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Kelly releases the ball 7.0 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
205 tracked pitches in 2026.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
47.1% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 17th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 17th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 444th in MLB.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the sweeper 21.9% of the time against right-handers and 0.9% against left-handers.
169 pitches to right-handers, 115 to left-handers.
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 88.4 mph across his arsenal, 31st percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 371st in MLB.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 44.2% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 47.6% with the bases empty.
95 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 189 with the bases empty.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.4 mph off the bat against Kelly, 23rd percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 416th in MLB.
He leaves too much of it over the heart of the plate
22.5% of Kelly's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, the part of the plate hitters do their damage on.
64 of 284 located pitches.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
5.6 mph separates Kelly's sinker from his changeup, 91.3 against 85.7.
170 and 61 of them respectively.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's changeup carries 8.6 inches of drop against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
61 thrown, averaging 85.7 mph.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 61.6% of the time.
73 plate appearances started in 2026.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Kelly has thrown 12 4-seam fastballs this season, 4.2% of his pitches, at 92.6 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
284 classified pitches in 2026.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a submarine slot, about -20 degrees above horizontal and 1.5 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
284 tracked release points, averaging 3.8 feet off the ground.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Kelly releases the ball 7.0 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
205 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 93.8% of the time, against 44.9% when he is ahead.
65 pitches behind in the count, 89 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the changeup: 31.5% of his two-strike pitches, against 16.9% the rest of the time.
89 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 63.1% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 36% when he is ahead.
65 located pitches behind, 89 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 61.6% of the time.
73 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sinker moves 16.6 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
170 thrown, averaging 91.3 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's changeup carries 8.6 inches of drop against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
61 thrown, averaging 85.7 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .344 expected average against them, against .248 on his offspeed pitches.
185 of his fastballs thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.07 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
284 located pitches in 2026.
He leaves too much of it over the heart of the plate
22.5% of Kelly's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, the part of the plate hitters do their damage on.
64 of 284 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 49.1% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 42.6% of his pitches to left-handers.
169 pitches to right-handed hitters, 115 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 3 pitches: Sinker, Changeup and Sweeper. The sinker is 59.9% of everything he throws.
284 classified pitches in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's sinker averages 91.3 mph, and has touched 93.4.
170 thrown, 59.9% of his pitches.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the sweeper 21.9% of the time against right-handers and 0.9% against left-handers.
169 pitches to right-handers, 115 to left-handers.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
5.6 mph separates Kelly's sinker from his changeup, 91.3 against 85.7.
170 and 61 of them respectively.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Kelly has thrown 12 4-seam fastballs this season, 4.2% of his pitches, at 92.6 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
284 classified pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Kelly lives in the strike zone: 46.5% of his pitches are in it, 84th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 84th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 89th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Kelly's stuff spins at 2,056 rpm, 13th percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 13th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 467th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
Too much of the contact against him is loud
47.1% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 17th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 17th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 444th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.4 mph off the bat against Kelly, 23rd percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 416th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 88.4 mph across his arsenal, 31st percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 371st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 44.2% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 47.6% with the bases empty.
95 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 189 with the bases empty.
Rays