The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a submarine slot, about -20 degrees above horizontal and 1.5 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
987 tracked release points, averaging 3.8 feet off the ground.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 90.5% of the time, against 44% when he is ahead.
190 pitches behind in the count, 327 ahead.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sweeper moves 18.6 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
69 thrown, averaging 78.3 mph.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .344 expected average against them, against .248 on his offspeed pitches.
185 of his fastballs thrown.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.06 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
987 located pitches in 2026.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the 4-seam fastball: 18.9% of his two-strike pitches, against 2% the rest of the time.
301 two-strike pitches in 2026.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kelly's changeup leaves the bat at 90.7 mph, against 84.6 off his sweeper.
276 and 69 of them thrown.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 49.1% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 42.6% of his pitches to left-handers.
169 pitches to right-handed hitters, 115 to left-handed hitters.
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Kelly lives in the strike zone: 46.5% of his pitches are in it, 84th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 84th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 89th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
14.8 mph separates Kelly's 4-seam fastball from his sweeper, 93.1 against 78.3.
71 and 69 of them respectively.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Kelly's stuff spins at 2,056 rpm, 13th percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 13th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 467th in MLB.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 68.9% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 32.7% when he is ahead.
190 located pitches behind, 327 ahead.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's sinker averages 91.3 mph, and has touched 94.3.
568 thrown, 57.5% of his pitches.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Kelly releases the ball 7.0 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
908 tracked pitches in 2026.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
47.1% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 17th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 17th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 444th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 4 pitches: Sinker, Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball and Sweeper. The sinker is 57.5% of everything he throws.
987 classified pitches in 2026.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 68.1% of the time.
276 plate appearances started in 2026.
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 88.4 mph across his arsenal, 31st percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 371st in MLB.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 44.2% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 47.6% with the bases empty.
95 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 189 with the bases empty.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.4 mph off the bat against Kelly, 23rd percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 416th in MLB.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's 4-seam fastball carries 9.3 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
71 thrown, averaging 93.1 mph.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sweeper spins at 2,551 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
69 thrown in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the changeup 35.3% of the time against left-handers and 22.7% against right-handers.
576 pitches to right-handers, 411 to left-handers.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a submarine slot, about -20 degrees above horizontal and 1.5 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
987 tracked release points, averaging 3.8 feet off the ground.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Kelly releases the ball 7.0 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
908 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 90.5% of the time, against 44% when he is ahead.
190 pitches behind in the count, 327 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the 4-seam fastball: 18.9% of his two-strike pitches, against 2% the rest of the time.
301 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 68.9% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 32.7% when he is ahead.
190 located pitches behind, 327 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 68.1% of the time.
276 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sweeper moves 18.6 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
69 thrown, averaging 78.3 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's 4-seam fastball carries 9.3 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
71 thrown, averaging 93.1 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .344 expected average against them, against .248 on his offspeed pitches.
185 of his fastballs thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.06 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
987 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kelly's changeup leaves the bat at 90.7 mph, against 84.6 off his sweeper.
276 and 69 of them thrown.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
14.8 mph separates Kelly's 4-seam fastball from his sweeper, 93.1 against 78.3.
71 and 69 of them respectively.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's sinker averages 91.3 mph, and has touched 94.3.
568 thrown, 57.5% of his pitches.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 4 pitches: Sinker, Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball and Sweeper. The sinker is 57.5% of everything he throws.
987 classified pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sweeper spins at 2,551 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
69 thrown in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the changeup 35.3% of the time against left-handers and 22.7% against right-handers.
576 pitches to right-handers, 411 to left-handers.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 49.1% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 42.6% of his pitches to left-handers.
169 pitches to right-handed hitters, 115 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Kelly lives in the strike zone: 46.5% of his pitches are in it, 84th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 84th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 89th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Kelly's stuff spins at 2,056 rpm, 13th percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 13th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 467th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
Too much of the contact against him is loud
47.1% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 17th percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 17th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 444th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.4 mph off the bat against Kelly, 23rd percentile.
284 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 416th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 88.4 mph across his arsenal, 31st percentile in the league.
284 pitches in 2026. 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 371st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 44.2% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 47.6% with the bases empty.
95 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 189 with the bases empty.
Rays