When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Estrada throws a fastball 76.7% of the time, against 46.7% when he is ahead.
159 pitches behind in the count, 135 ahead.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .475 expected average against them, against .312 on his fastballs.
50 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Estrada's 4-seam fastball carries 18.9 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
299 thrown, averaging 95.9 mph.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Estrada releases the ball from over the top, about 77 degrees above horizontal and 0.3 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
512 tracked release points, averaging 5.7 feet off the ground.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Estrada works off the plate, with only 34.8% of his pitches in the zone, 4th percentile.
198 pitches in 2026. 4th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 518th in MLB.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Estrada goes to the splitter: 43.9% of his two-strike pitches, against 27.2% the rest of the time.
148 two-strike pitches in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Estrada's 4-seam fastball averages 95.9 mph, and has touched 98.0.
299 thrown, 58.4% of his pitches.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Estrada is weak: 81.6 mph off the bat on average, 99th percentile.
198 pitches in 2026. 99th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 9th in MLB.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Estrada's stuff spins at 1,938 rpm, 5th percentile in the league.
198 pitches in 2026. 5th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 510th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Estrada works with 3 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Splitter and Slider. The 4-seam fastball is 58.4% of everything he throws.
512 classified pitches in 2026.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Estrada releases the ball 7.1 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
474 tracked pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Estrada's splitter moves 12.3 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
164 thrown, averaging 82.1 mph.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
13.8 mph separates Estrada's 4-seam fastball from his splitter, 95.9 against 82.1.
299 and 164 of them respectively.
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Estrada averages 91.2 mph across his arsenal, 71st percentile in the league.
198 pitches in 2026. 71st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 155th in MLB.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Estrada puts 55.3% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 35.6% when he is ahead.
159 located pitches behind, 135 ahead.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
17% of Estrada's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
87 of 512 located pitches.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Estrada's splitter leaves the bat at 84.4 mph, against 80.9 off his slider.
164 and 49 of them thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Estrada lands 36.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 26% of his offspeed pitches.
128 of his fastballs, 50 of his offspeed pitches.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Estrada throws 36.7% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 34.1% with the bases empty.
60 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 138 with the bases empty.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Estrada lives up in the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.63 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
512 located pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Estrada throws the slider 15.5% of the time against right-handers and 4.4% against left-handers.
239 pitches to right-handers, 273 to left-handers.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Estrada projects a .311 average, 64th percentile.
198 pitches in 2026. 64th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 194th in MLB.
He falls behind hitters far too often
Estrada throws a strike on the first pitch 58.4% of the time.
125 plate appearances started in 2026.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
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When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Estrada throws a fastball 76.7% of the time, against 46.7% when he is ahead.
159 pitches behind in the count, 135 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Estrada goes to the splitter: 43.9% of his two-strike pitches, against 27.2% the rest of the time.
148 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Estrada puts 55.3% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 35.6% when he is ahead.
159 located pitches behind, 135 ahead.
He falls behind hitters far too often
Estrada throws a strike on the first pitch 58.4% of the time.
125 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .475 expected average against them, against .312 on his fastballs.
50 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Estrada lands 36.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 26% of his offspeed pitches.
128 of his fastballs, 50 of his offspeed pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Estrada's 4-seam fastball carries 18.9 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
299 thrown, averaging 95.9 mph.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Estrada's splitter moves 12.3 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
164 thrown, averaging 82.1 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Estrada releases the ball from over the top, about 77 degrees above horizontal and 0.3 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
512 tracked release points, averaging 5.7 feet off the ground.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Estrada releases the ball 7.1 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
474 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Estrada works off the plate, with only 34.8% of his pitches in the zone, 4th percentile.
198 pitches in 2026. 4th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 518th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Estrada's 4-seam fastball averages 95.9 mph, and has touched 98.0.
299 thrown, 58.4% of his pitches.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Estrada works with 3 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Splitter and Slider. The 4-seam fastball is 58.4% of everything he throws.
512 classified pitches in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
13.8 mph separates Estrada's 4-seam fastball from his splitter, 95.9 against 82.1.
299 and 164 of them respectively.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Estrada's splitter leaves the bat at 84.4 mph, against 80.9 off his slider.
164 and 49 of them thrown.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Estrada throws the slider 15.5% of the time against right-handers and 4.4% against left-handers.
239 pitches to right-handers, 273 to left-handers.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Estrada is weak: 81.6 mph off the bat on average, 99th percentile.
198 pitches in 2026. 99th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 9th in MLB.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Estrada projects a .311 average, 64th percentile.
198 pitches in 2026. 64th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 194th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Estrada's stuff spins at 1,938 rpm, 5th percentile in the league.
198 pitches in 2026. 5th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 510th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws about as hard as anybody in the league
Estrada averages 91.2 mph across his arsenal, 71st percentile in the league.
198 pitches in 2026. 71st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 155th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
17% of Estrada's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
87 of 512 located pitches.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Estrada lives up in the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.63 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
512 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Estrada throws 36.7% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 34.1% with the bases empty.
60 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 138 with the bases empty.
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