When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Herrin throws a fastball 62.5% of the time, against 29% when he is ahead.
288 pitches behind in the count, 259 ahead.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .286 expected average against them, against .188 on his breaking balls.
106 of his fastballs thrown.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Herrin lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 1.93 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
983 located pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Herrin's sinker moves 15.2 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
239 thrown, averaging 93.6 mph.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Herrin's slider leaves the bat at 89.9 mph, against 84.4 off his curveball.
251 and 298 of them thrown.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Herrin projects a .238 average, 96th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 96th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 23rd in MLB.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Herrin goes to the curveball: 39.1% of his two-strike pitches, against 26.7% the rest of the time.
289 two-strike pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Herrin releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 34 degrees above horizontal and 1.8 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
983 tracked release points, averaging 5.7 feet off the ground.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
14.4 mph separates Herrin's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 94.7 against 80.2.
194 and 298 of them respectively.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Herrin lands 58.5% of his fastballs in the zone and only 36.1% of his breaking balls.
106 of his fastballs, 144 of his breaking balls.
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Herrin lives in the strike zone: 45.6% of his pitches are in it, 78th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 78th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 119th in MLB.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Herrin puts 43.5% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 48.5% of his pitches to left-handers.
148 pitches to right-handed hitters, 103 to left-handed hitters.
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Herrin averages 87.8 mph across his arsenal, 24th percentile in the league.
251 pitches in 2026. 24th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 411th in MLB.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Herrin is weak: 85.2 mph off the bat on average, 88th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 66th in MLB.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Herrin throws the sinker 36.1% of the time against left-handers and 14.9% against right-handers.
545 pitches to right-handers, 438 to left-handers.
He falls behind hitters far too often
Herrin throws a strike on the first pitch 53.8% of the time.
238 plate appearances started in 2026.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Herrin's 4-seam fastball carries 11.5 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
194 thrown, averaging 94.7 mph.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Herrin works with 4 pitches: Curveball, Slider, Sinker and 4-Seam Fastball. The curveball is 30.3% of everything he throws.
983 classified pitches in 2026.
Almost nothing hit off him is hit well
Only 32.7% of the contact Herrin gives up is hit hard, 80th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 80th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 107th in MLB.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
17.4% of Herrin's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
171 of 983 located pitches.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Herrin throws 47.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44.7% with the bases empty.
92 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 159 with the bases empty.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Herrin puts 52.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 38.6% when he is ahead.
288 located pitches behind, 259 ahead.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Herrin's 4-seam fastball spins at 2,349 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
194 thrown in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Herrin's sinker averages 93.6 mph, and has touched 97.0.
239 thrown, 24.3% of his pitches.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
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When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Herrin throws a fastball 62.5% of the time, against 29% when he is ahead.
288 pitches behind in the count, 259 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Herrin goes to the curveball: 39.1% of his two-strike pitches, against 26.7% the rest of the time.
289 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He falls behind hitters far too often
Herrin throws a strike on the first pitch 53.8% of the time.
238 plate appearances started in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Herrin puts 52.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 38.6% when he is ahead.
288 located pitches behind, 259 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .286 expected average against them, against .188 on his breaking balls.
106 of his fastballs thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Herrin lands 58.5% of his fastballs in the zone and only 36.1% of his breaking balls.
106 of his fastballs, 144 of his breaking balls.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Herrin lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 1.93 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
983 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
17.4% of Herrin's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
171 of 983 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Herrin's sinker moves 15.2 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
239 thrown, averaging 93.6 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Herrin's 4-seam fastball carries 11.5 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
194 thrown, averaging 94.7 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Herrin's slider leaves the bat at 89.9 mph, against 84.4 off his curveball.
251 and 298 of them thrown.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
14.4 mph separates Herrin's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 94.7 against 80.2.
194 and 298 of them respectively.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Herrin throws the sinker 36.1% of the time against left-handers and 14.9% against right-handers.
545 pitches to right-handers, 438 to left-handers.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Herrin works with 4 pitches: Curveball, Slider, Sinker and 4-Seam Fastball. The curveball is 30.3% of everything he throws.
983 classified pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Herrin's 4-seam fastball spins at 2,349 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
194 thrown in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Herrin's sinker averages 93.6 mph, and has touched 97.0.
239 thrown, 24.3% of his pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
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The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Herrin projects a .238 average, 96th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 96th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 23rd in MLB.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Herrin is weak: 85.2 mph off the bat on average, 88th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 88th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 66th in MLB.
Almost nothing hit off him is hit well
Only 32.7% of the contact Herrin gives up is hit hard, 80th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 80th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 107th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Herrin releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 34 degrees above horizontal and 1.8 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
983 tracked release points, averaging 5.7 feet off the ground.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He fills the strike zone and makes hitters beat him
Herrin lives in the strike zone: 45.6% of his pitches are in it, 78th percentile.
251 pitches in 2026. 78th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 119th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
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He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Herrin puts 43.5% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 48.5% of his pitches to left-handers.
148 pitches to right-handed hitters, 103 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Herrin averages 87.8 mph across his arsenal, 24th percentile in the league.
251 pitches in 2026. 24th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 411th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Herrin throws 47.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44.7% with the bases empty.
92 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 159 with the bases empty.
Guardians