When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Lorenzen throws a fastball 66.7% of the time, against 40.6% when he is ahead.
676 pitches behind in the count, 653 ahead.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 94.8 mph, against 85.7 off his changeup.
445 and 489 of them thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Lorenzen's sinker moves 15.2 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
500 thrown, averaging 93.4 mph.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Lorenzen goes to the changeup: 29.5% of his two-strike pitches, against 16.9% the rest of the time.
660 two-strike pitches in 2026.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Lorenzen works with 7 pitches: Sinker, Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball and Cutter, and a little else. The sinker is 20.8% of everything he throws.
2400 classified pitches in 2026.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Lorenzen lands 50.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 30.4% of his offspeed pitches.
379 of his fastballs, 168 of his offspeed pitches.
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Lorenzen projects a .374 average, 11th percentile.
787 pitches in 2026. 11th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 480th in MLB.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Lorenzen lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.21 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
2400 located pitches in 2026.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Lorenzen releases the ball 5.8 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
2189 tracked pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball carries 13.4 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
445 thrown, averaging 94.1 mph.
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Lorenzen averages 87.9 mph across his arsenal, 25th percentile in the league.
787 pitches in 2026. 25th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 405th in MLB.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Lorenzen puts 60.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 35.2% when he is ahead.
676 located pitches behind, 653 ahead.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .397 expected average against them, against .341 on his breaking balls.
379 of his fastballs thrown.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
48.1% of the contact Lorenzen gives up is hit hard, 15th percentile.
787 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 455th in MLB.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Lorenzen's fastball averages 93.3 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 92.2 past his 75th.
435 early fastballs, 183 late ones.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Lorenzen throws the changeup 28.1% of the time against left-handers and 10.3% against right-handers.
1045 pitches to right-handers, 1355 to left-handers.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Lorenzen throws 41% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44.5% with the bases empty.
200 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 587 with the bases empty.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Lorenzen releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 39 degrees above horizontal and 1.6 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
2400 tracked release points, averaging 5.6 feet off the ground.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Lorenzen's sweeper spins at 2,568 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
174 thrown in 2026.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.1 mph off the bat against Lorenzen, 26th percentile.
787 pitches in 2026. 26th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 399th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
11.4 mph separates Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 94.1 against 82.6.
445 and 259 of them respectively.
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Lorenzen's stuff spins at 2,319 rpm, 61st percentile in the league.
787 pitches in 2026. 61st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 211th in MLB.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Lorenzen throws a strike on the first pitch 61.2% of the time.
619 plate appearances started in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Lorenzen's sinker averages 93.4 mph, and has touched 96.6.
500 thrown, 20.8% of his pitches.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Lorenzen throws a fastball 66.7% of the time, against 40.6% when he is ahead.
676 pitches behind in the count, 653 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Lorenzen goes to the changeup: 29.5% of his two-strike pitches, against 16.9% the rest of the time.
660 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Lorenzen puts 60.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 35.2% when he is ahead.
676 located pitches behind, 653 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Lorenzen throws a strike on the first pitch 61.2% of the time.
619 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 94.8 mph, against 85.7 off his changeup.
445 and 489 of them thrown.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Lorenzen works with 7 pitches: Sinker, Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball and Cutter, and a little else. The sinker is 20.8% of everything he throws.
2400 classified pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Lorenzen throws the changeup 28.1% of the time against left-handers and 10.3% against right-handers.
1045 pitches to right-handers, 1355 to left-handers.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Lorenzen's sweeper spins at 2,568 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
174 thrown in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
11.4 mph separates Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 94.1 against 82.6.
445 and 259 of them respectively.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Lorenzen's sinker averages 93.4 mph, and has touched 96.6.
500 thrown, 20.8% of his pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Lorenzen's sinker moves 15.2 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
500 thrown, averaging 93.4 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Lorenzen's 4-seam fastball carries 13.4 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
445 thrown, averaging 94.1 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Lorenzen lands 50.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 30.4% of his offspeed pitches.
379 of his fastballs, 168 of his offspeed pitches.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .397 expected average against them, against .341 on his breaking balls.
379 of his fastballs thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Lorenzen projects a .374 average, 11th percentile.
787 pitches in 2026. 11th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 480th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
48.1% of the contact Lorenzen gives up is hit hard, 15th percentile.
787 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 455th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.1 mph off the bat against Lorenzen, 26th percentile.
787 pitches in 2026. 26th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 399th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Lorenzen lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.21 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
2400 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Lorenzen releases the ball 5.8 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
2189 tracked pitches in 2026.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Lorenzen's fastball averages 93.3 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 92.2 past his 75th.
435 early fastballs, 183 late ones.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Lorenzen releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 39 degrees above horizontal and 1.6 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
2400 tracked release points, averaging 5.6 feet off the ground.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Lorenzen averages 87.9 mph across his arsenal, 25th percentile in the league.
787 pitches in 2026. 25th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 405th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Lorenzen throws 41% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44.5% with the bases empty.
200 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 587 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Lorenzen's stuff spins at 2,319 rpm, 61st percentile in the league.
787 pitches in 2026. 61st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 211th in MLB.
Blue Jays