One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .427 expected average against them, against .307 on his breaking balls.
162 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sinker moves 16.6 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
238 thrown, averaging 92.4 mph.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.05 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
2621 located pitches in 2026.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Kelly works off the plate, with only 37.7% of his pitches in the zone, 10th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 484th in MLB.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the changeup: 37.2% of his two-strike pitches, against 24.3% the rest of the time.
724 two-strike pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 31 degrees above horizontal and 1.7 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
2621 tracked release points, averaging 5.3 feet off the ground.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the slider 23.5% of the time against right-handers and 1.6% against left-handers.
1022 pitches to right-handers, 1599 to left-handers.
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Kelly projects a .385 average, 8th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 8th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 495th in MLB.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's 4-seam fastball carries 14.1 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
724 thrown, averaging 92.1 mph.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kelly's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 91.3 mph, against 86.5 off his curveball.
724 and 299 of them thrown.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 57% of the time, against 42.3% when he is ahead.
719 pitches behind in the count, 738 ahead.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 6 pitches: Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball, Cutter and Curveball, and a little else. The changeup is 27.9% of everything he throws.
2621 classified pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
15.1% of Kelly's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
395 of 2621 located pitches.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 34.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 38.7% with the bases empty.
134 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 445 with the bases empty.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Kelly's fastball averages 92.3 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 91.3 past his 75th.
409 early fastballs, 220 late ones.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 52.3% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 34.7% when he is ahead.
719 located pitches behind, 738 ahead.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.5 mph off the bat against Kelly, 21st percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 21st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 427th in MLB.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 39.5% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 36.4% of his pitches to left-handers.
233 pitches to right-handed hitters, 346 to left-handed hitters.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's 4-seam fastball averages 92.1 mph, and has touched 95.6.
724 thrown, 27.6% of his pitches.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
45.6% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 23rd percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 413th in MLB.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kelly's curveball spins at 2,555 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
299 thrown in 2026.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Kelly releases the ball 6.1 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
2542 tracked pitches in 2026.
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 89.0 mph across his arsenal, 39th percentile in the league.
579 pitches in 2026. 39th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 330th in MLB.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Kelly lands 45.9% of his fastballs in the zone and only 37.3% of his breaking balls.
283 of his fastballs, 134 of his breaking balls.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 61.5% of the time.
707 plate appearances started in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
9.9 mph separates Kelly's sinker from his curveball, 92.4 against 82.5.
238 and 299 of them respectively.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .427 expected average against them, against .307 on his breaking balls.
162 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Kelly lands 45.9% of his fastballs in the zone and only 37.3% of his breaking balls.
283 of his fastballs, 134 of his breaking balls.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sinker moves 16.6 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
238 thrown, averaging 92.4 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's 4-seam fastball carries 14.1 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
724 thrown, averaging 92.1 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.05 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
2621 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
15.1% of Kelly's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
395 of 2621 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Kelly works off the plate, with only 37.7% of his pitches in the zone, 10th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 484th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the changeup: 37.2% of his two-strike pitches, against 24.3% the rest of the time.
724 two-strike pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 57% of the time, against 42.3% when he is ahead.
719 pitches behind in the count, 738 ahead.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 52.3% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 34.7% when he is ahead.
719 located pitches behind, 738 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 61.5% of the time.
707 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 31 degrees above horizontal and 1.7 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
2621 tracked release points, averaging 5.3 feet off the ground.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Kelly's fastball averages 92.3 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 91.3 past his 75th.
409 early fastballs, 220 late ones.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Kelly releases the ball 6.1 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
2542 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the slider 23.5% of the time against right-handers and 1.6% against left-handers.
1022 pitches to right-handers, 1599 to left-handers.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kelly's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 91.3 mph, against 86.5 off his curveball.
724 and 299 of them thrown.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 6 pitches: Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball, Cutter and Curveball, and a little else. The changeup is 27.9% of everything he throws.
2621 classified pitches in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's 4-seam fastball averages 92.1 mph, and has touched 95.6.
724 thrown, 27.6% of his pitches.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kelly's curveball spins at 2,555 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
299 thrown in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
9.9 mph separates Kelly's sinker from his curveball, 92.4 against 82.5.
238 and 299 of them respectively.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Kelly projects a .385 average, 8th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 8th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 495th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.5 mph off the bat against Kelly, 21st percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 21st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 427th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
45.6% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 23rd percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 413th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 34.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 38.7% with the bases empty.
134 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 445 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 39.5% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 36.4% of his pitches to left-handers.
233 pitches to right-handed hitters, 346 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 89.0 mph across his arsenal, 39th percentile in the league.
579 pitches in 2026. 39th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 330th in MLB.
Diamondbacks