One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .427 expected average against them, against .307 on his breaking balls.
162 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kelly's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 95.3 mph, against 83.6 off his slider.
140 and 76 of them thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sinker moves 16.5 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
46 thrown, averaging 92.4 mph.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.02 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
579 located pitches in 2026.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Kelly works off the plate, with only 37.7% of his pitches in the zone, 10th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 484th in MLB.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the slider 30% of the time against right-handers and 1.7% against left-handers.
233 pitches to right-handers, 346 to left-handers.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the changeup: 36.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 24.8% the rest of the time.
152 two-strike pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 32 degrees above horizontal and 1.7 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
579 tracked release points, averaging 5.3 feet off the ground.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's 4-seam fastball carries 14.6 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
140 thrown, averaging 91.9 mph.
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Kelly projects a .385 average, 8th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 8th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 495th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 6 pitches: Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball, Cutter and Slider, and a little else. The changeup is 28% of everything he throws.
579 classified pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 54% of the time, against 41.4% when he is ahead.
163 pitches behind in the count, 152 ahead.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Kelly's fastball averages 92.1 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 91.0 past his 75th.
88 early fastballs, 52 late ones.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 34.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 38.7% with the bases empty.
134 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 445 with the bases empty.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
15.5% of Kelly's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
90 of 579 located pitches.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 48.5% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 30.9% when he is ahead.
163 located pitches behind, 152 ahead.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.5 mph off the bat against Kelly, 21st percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 21st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 427th in MLB.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's 4-seam fastball averages 91.9 mph, and has touched 94.3.
140 thrown, 24.2% of his pitches.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 39.5% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 36.4% of his pitches to left-handers.
233 pitches to right-handed hitters, 346 to left-handed hitters.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
45.6% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 23rd percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 413th in MLB.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Kelly releases the ball 6.1 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
500 tracked pitches in 2026.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 63.5% of the time.
156 plate appearances started in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kelly's curveball spins at 2,535 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
58 thrown in 2026.
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 89.0 mph across his arsenal, 39th percentile in the league.
579 pitches in 2026. 39th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 330th in MLB.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Kelly lands 45.9% of his fastballs in the zone and only 37.3% of his breaking balls.
283 of his fastballs, 134 of his breaking balls.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
10.5 mph separates Kelly's sinker from his curveball, 92.4 against 81.9.
46 and 58 of them respectively.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .427 expected average against them, against .307 on his breaking balls.
162 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Kelly lands 45.9% of his fastballs in the zone and only 37.3% of his breaking balls.
283 of his fastballs, 134 of his breaking balls.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kelly's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 95.3 mph, against 83.6 off his slider.
140 and 76 of them thrown.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kelly throws the slider 30% of the time against right-handers and 1.7% against left-handers.
233 pitches to right-handers, 346 to left-handers.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kelly works with 6 pitches: Changeup, 4-Seam Fastball, Cutter and Slider, and a little else. The changeup is 28% of everything he throws.
579 classified pitches in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kelly's 4-seam fastball averages 91.9 mph, and has touched 94.3.
140 thrown, 24.2% of his pitches.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kelly's curveball spins at 2,535 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
58 thrown in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
10.5 mph separates Kelly's sinker from his curveball, 92.4 against 81.9.
46 and 58 of them respectively.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kelly's sinker moves 16.5 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
46 thrown, averaging 92.4 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kelly's 4-seam fastball carries 14.6 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
140 thrown, averaging 91.9 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kelly lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.02 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
579 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
15.5% of Kelly's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
90 of 579 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Kelly works off the plate, with only 37.7% of his pitches in the zone, 10th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 484th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kelly goes to the changeup: 36.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 24.8% the rest of the time.
152 two-strike pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kelly throws a fastball 54% of the time, against 41.4% when he is ahead.
163 pitches behind in the count, 152 ahead.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kelly puts 48.5% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 30.9% when he is ahead.
163 located pitches behind, 152 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Kelly throws a strike on the first pitch 63.5% of the time.
156 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kelly releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 32 degrees above horizontal and 1.7 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
579 tracked release points, averaging 5.3 feet off the ground.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Kelly's fastball averages 92.1 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 91.0 past his 75th.
88 early fastballs, 52 late ones.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Kelly releases the ball 6.1 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
500 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Kelly projects a .385 average, 8th percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 8th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 495th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 90.5 mph off the bat against Kelly, 21st percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 21st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 427th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
45.6% of the contact Kelly gives up is hit hard, 23rd percentile.
579 pitches in 2026. 23rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 413th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Kelly throws 34.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 38.7% with the bases empty.
134 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 445 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Kelly puts 39.5% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 36.4% of his pitches to left-handers.
233 pitches to right-handed hitters, 346 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets by without much velocity, and it costs him
Kelly averages 89.0 mph across his arsenal, 39th percentile in the league.
579 pitches in 2026. 39th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 330th in MLB.
Diamondbacks