This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Holmes goes to the slider: 56.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 31.9% the rest of the time.
162 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Holmes lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 1.89 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
654 located pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Holmes throws a fastball 64.2% of the time, against 26.6% when he is ahead.
204 pitches behind in the count, 154 ahead.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Holmes works off the plate, with only 37.8% of his pitches in the zone, 10th percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 481st in MLB.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Holmes lands 51.1% of his fastballs in the zone and only 25.9% of his breaking balls.
313 of his fastballs, 317 of his breaking balls.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Holmes's 4-seam fastball carries 14.7 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
243 thrown, averaging 94.6 mph.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Holmes's curveball spins at 2,781 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
68 thrown in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Holmes releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 35 degrees above horizontal and 2.2 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
654 tracked release points, averaging 5.7 feet off the ground.
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Holmes's stuff spins at 2,514 rpm, 89th percentile in the league.
654 pitches in 2026. 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 58th in MLB.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Holmes throws 33.8% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 38.9% with the bases empty.
145 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 509 with the bases empty.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Holmes's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 91.2 mph, against 87.1 off his slider.
243 and 249 of them thrown.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
14.8% of Holmes's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
97 of 654 located pitches.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Holmes puts 55.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 36.4% when he is ahead.
204 located pitches behind, 154 ahead.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Holmes works with 5 pitches: Slider, 4-Seam Fastball, Curveball and Sinker, and a little else. The slider is 38.1% of everything he throws.
654 classified pitches in 2026.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .346 expected average against them, against .298 on his fastballs.
317 of his breaking balls thrown.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Holmes releases the ball 6.0 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
503 tracked pitches in 2026.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
44.3% of the contact Holmes gives up is hit hard, 29th percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 380th in MLB.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Holmes throws the slider 46.2% of the time against right-handers and 31.7% against left-handers.
288 pitches to right-handers, 366 to left-handers.
He falls behind hitters far too often
Holmes throws a strike on the first pitch 55.4% of the time.
177 plate appearances started in 2026.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Holmes's fastball averages 94.5 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 93.9 past his 75th.
102 early fastballs, 38 late ones.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Holmes's 4-seam fastball averages 94.6 mph, and has touched 96.9.
243 thrown, 37.2% of his pitches.
He lives on one side of the plate
Holmes works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 1.8 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
654 located pitches in 2026.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 89.4 mph off the bat against Holmes, 34th percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 34th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 354th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
11.3 mph separates Holmes's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 94.6 against 83.3.
243 and 68 of them respectively.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Holmes projects a .312 average, 62nd percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 62nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 205th in MLB.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Holmes has thrown 24 changeups this season, 3.7% of his pitches, at 89.8 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
654 classified pitches in 2026.
Show more
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Holmes goes to the slider: 56.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 31.9% the rest of the time.
162 two-strike pitches in 2026.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Holmes throws a fastball 64.2% of the time, against 26.6% when he is ahead.
204 pitches behind in the count, 154 ahead.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Holmes puts 55.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 36.4% when he is ahead.
204 located pitches behind, 154 ahead.
He falls behind hitters far too often
Holmes throws a strike on the first pitch 55.4% of the time.
177 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Holmes lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 1.89 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
654 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
14.8% of Holmes's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
97 of 654 located pitches.
He lives on one side of the plate
Holmes works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 1.8 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
654 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Holmes works off the plate, with only 37.8% of his pitches in the zone, 10th percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 481st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Holmes lands 51.1% of his fastballs in the zone and only 25.9% of his breaking balls.
313 of his fastballs, 317 of his breaking balls.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .346 expected average against them, against .298 on his fastballs.
317 of his breaking balls thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Holmes's 4-seam fastball carries 14.7 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
243 thrown, averaging 94.6 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Holmes's curveball spins at 2,781 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
68 thrown in 2026.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Holmes's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 91.2 mph, against 87.1 off his slider.
243 and 249 of them thrown.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Holmes works with 5 pitches: Slider, 4-Seam Fastball, Curveball and Sinker, and a little else. The slider is 38.1% of everything he throws.
654 classified pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Holmes throws the slider 46.2% of the time against right-handers and 31.7% against left-handers.
288 pitches to right-handers, 366 to left-handers.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Holmes's 4-seam fastball averages 94.6 mph, and has touched 96.9.
243 thrown, 37.2% of his pitches.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
11.3 mph separates Holmes's 4-seam fastball from his curveball, 94.6 against 83.3.
243 and 68 of them respectively.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Holmes has thrown 24 changeups this season, 3.7% of his pitches, at 89.8 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
654 classified pitches in 2026.
Show more
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Holmes releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 35 degrees above horizontal and 2.2 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
654 tracked release points, averaging 5.7 feet off the ground.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Holmes releases the ball 6.0 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
503 tracked pitches in 2026.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Holmes's fastball averages 94.5 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 93.9 past his 75th.
102 early fastballs, 38 late ones.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Holmes's stuff spins at 2,514 rpm, 89th percentile in the league.
654 pitches in 2026. 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 58th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Holmes throws 33.8% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 38.9% with the bases empty.
145 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 509 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
Too much of the contact against him is loud
44.3% of the contact Holmes gives up is hit hard, 29th percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 380th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 89.4 mph off the bat against Holmes, 34th percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 34th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 354th in MLB.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Holmes projects a .312 average, 62nd percentile.
654 pitches in 2026. 62nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 205th in MLB.
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