One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Pagan's 4-seam fastball carries 18.4 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
137 thrown, averaging 94.3 mph.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Pagan throws a fastball 87.3% of the time, against 62.1% when he is ahead.
63 pitches behind in the count, 66 ahead.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Pagan's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 93.5 mph, against 84.5 off his cutter.
137 and 47 of them thrown.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Pagan puts 35.3% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 42.9% of his pitches to left-handers.
119 pitches to right-handed hitters, 113 to left-handed hitters.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Pagan goes to the splitter: 32.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 16.1% the rest of the time.
58 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Pagan works off the plate, with only 39% of his pitches in the zone, 15th percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 459th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
56.8% of the contact Pagan gives up is hit hard, 2nd percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 2nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 524th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Pagan works with 3 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Cutter and Splitter. The 4-seam fastball is 59.1% of everything he throws.
232 classified pitches in 2026.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.6 mph off the bat against Pagan, 10th percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 481st in MLB.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
15.6% of Pagan's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
36 of 231 located pitches.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Pagan throws 35.5% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 40.2% with the bases empty.
63 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 169 with the bases empty.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Pagan puts 55.6% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 33.3% when he is ahead.
63 located pitches behind, 66 ahead.
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Pagan releases the ball 6.8 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
163 tracked pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Pagan throws the splitter 30.1% of the time against left-handers and 10.9% against right-handers.
119 pitches to right-handers, 113 to left-handers.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Pagan releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 42 degrees above horizontal and 1.2 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
231 tracked release points, averaging 5.4 feet off the ground.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Pagan projects a .296 average, 78th percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 78th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 117th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
11.8 mph separates Pagan's 4-seam fastball from his splitter, 94.3 against 82.4.
137 and 47 of them respectively.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Pagan's splitter moves 9.8 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
47 thrown, averaging 82.4 mph.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Pagan's stuff spins at 2,173 rpm, 32nd percentile in the league.
232 pitches in 2026. 32nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 367th in MLB.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Pagan's 4-seam fastball spins at 2,552 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
137 thrown in 2026.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Pagan throws a strike on the first pitch 63.5% of the time.
63 plate appearances started in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Pagan's 4-seam fastball averages 94.3 mph, and has touched 96.4.
137 thrown, 59.1% of his pitches.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Pagan's 4-seam fastball carries 18.4 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
137 thrown, averaging 94.3 mph.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Pagan's splitter moves 9.8 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
47 thrown, averaging 82.4 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Pagan throws a fastball 87.3% of the time, against 62.1% when he is ahead.
63 pitches behind in the count, 66 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Pagan goes to the splitter: 32.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 16.1% the rest of the time.
58 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Pagan puts 55.6% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 33.3% when he is ahead.
63 located pitches behind, 66 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Pagan throws a strike on the first pitch 63.5% of the time.
63 plate appearances started in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Pagan's 4-seam fastball leaves the bat at 93.5 mph, against 84.5 off his cutter.
137 and 47 of them thrown.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Pagan works with 3 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Cutter and Splitter. The 4-seam fastball is 59.1% of everything he throws.
232 classified pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Pagan throws the splitter 30.1% of the time against left-handers and 10.9% against right-handers.
119 pitches to right-handers, 113 to left-handers.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
11.8 mph separates Pagan's 4-seam fastball from his splitter, 94.3 against 82.4.
137 and 47 of them respectively.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Pagan's 4-seam fastball spins at 2,552 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
137 thrown in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Pagan's 4-seam fastball averages 94.3 mph, and has touched 96.4.
137 thrown, 59.1% of his pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Pagan puts 35.3% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 42.9% of his pitches to left-handers.
119 pitches to right-handed hitters, 113 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Pagan works off the plate, with only 39% of his pitches in the zone, 15th percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 15th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 459th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
Too much of the contact against him is loud
56.8% of the contact Pagan gives up is hit hard, 2nd percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 2nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 524th in MLB.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.6 mph off the bat against Pagan, 10th percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 481st in MLB.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Pagan projects a .296 average, 78th percentile.
232 pitches in 2026. 78th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 117th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
15.6% of Pagan's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
36 of 231 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Pagan throws 35.5% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 40.2% with the bases empty.
63 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 169 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He gets so far down the mound the ball arrives early
Pagan releases the ball 6.8 feet down the mound, so the ball arrives sooner than the radar gun suggests.
163 tracked pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Pagan releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 42 degrees above horizontal and 1.2 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
231 tracked release points, averaging 5.4 feet off the ground.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Pagan's stuff spins at 2,173 rpm, 32nd percentile in the league.
232 pitches in 2026. 32nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 367th in MLB.
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