One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .460 expected average against them, against .324 on his fastballs.
96 of his breaking balls thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Lucas's changeup moves 101.0 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
92 thrown, averaging 87.4 mph.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Lucas throws a fastball 75.9% of the time, against 50.4% when he is ahead.
116 pitches behind in the count, 127 ahead.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Lucas's slider leaves the bat at 96.4 mph, against 87.1 off his changeup.
53 and 92 of them thrown.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Lucas puts 49.7% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.8% of his pitches to left-handers.
304 pitches to right-handed hitters, 134 to left-handed hitters.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Lucas's 4-seam fastball carries 17.3 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
218 thrown, averaging 93.8 mph.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Lucas throws the changeup 28.6% of the time against right-handers and 3.7% against left-handers.
304 pitches to right-handers, 134 to left-handers.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.2 mph off the bat against Lucas, 10th percentile.
438 pitches in 2025. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 700th in MLB.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Lucas's stuff spins at 2,052 rpm, 11th percentile in the league.
438 pitches in 2025. 11th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 695th in MLB.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Lucas throws a strike on the first pitch 67.6% of the time.
108 plate appearances started in 2025.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Lucas throws 42.9% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 48.3% with the bases empty.
84 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 354 with the bases empty.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Lucas releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 37 degrees above horizontal and 2.1 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
438 tracked release points, averaging 6.0 feet off the ground.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Lucas lands 54.4% of his fastballs in the zone and only 35.9% of his offspeed pitches.
250 of his fastballs, 92 of his offspeed pitches.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Lucas works with 5 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Changeup, Slider and Sweeper, and a little else. The 4-seam fastball is 49.8% of everything he throws.
438 classified pitches in 2025.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Lucas goes to the 4-seam fastball: 55.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 46.7% the rest of the time.
147 two-strike pitches in 2025.
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Lucas projects a .361 average, 20th percentile.
438 pitches in 2025. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 628th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
12.7 mph separates Lucas's 4-seam fastball from his sweeper, 93.8 against 81.1.
218 and 43 of them respectively.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
18.3% of Lucas's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
80 of 438 located pitches.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Lucas puts 53.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 43.3% when he is ahead.
116 located pitches behind, 127 ahead.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
43.8% of the contact Lucas gives up is hit hard, 32nd percentile.
438 pitches in 2025. 32nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 530th in MLB.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Lucas's 4-seam fastball averages 93.8 mph, and has touched 97.2.
218 thrown, 49.8% of his pitches.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Lucas's sweeper spins at 2,340 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
43 thrown in 2025.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .460 expected average against them, against .324 on his fastballs.
96 of his breaking balls thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Lucas lands 54.4% of his fastballs in the zone and only 35.9% of his offspeed pitches.
250 of his fastballs, 92 of his offspeed pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Lucas's changeup moves 101.0 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
92 thrown, averaging 87.4 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Lucas's 4-seam fastball carries 17.3 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
218 thrown, averaging 93.8 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Lucas throws a fastball 75.9% of the time, against 50.4% when he is ahead.
116 pitches behind in the count, 127 ahead.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Lucas throws a strike on the first pitch 67.6% of the time.
108 plate appearances started in 2025.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Lucas goes to the 4-seam fastball: 55.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 46.7% the rest of the time.
147 two-strike pitches in 2025.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Lucas puts 53.4% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 43.3% when he is ahead.
116 located pitches behind, 127 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Lucas's slider leaves the bat at 96.4 mph, against 87.1 off his changeup.
53 and 92 of them thrown.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Lucas throws the changeup 28.6% of the time against right-handers and 3.7% against left-handers.
304 pitches to right-handers, 134 to left-handers.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Lucas works with 5 pitches: 4-Seam Fastball, Changeup, Slider and Sweeper, and a little else. The 4-seam fastball is 49.8% of everything he throws.
438 classified pitches in 2025.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
12.7 mph separates Lucas's 4-seam fastball from his sweeper, 93.8 against 81.1.
218 and 43 of them respectively.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Lucas's 4-seam fastball averages 93.8 mph, and has touched 97.2.
218 thrown, 49.8% of his pitches.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Lucas's sweeper spins at 2,340 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
43 thrown in 2025.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Lucas puts 49.7% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.8% of his pitches to left-handers.
304 pitches to right-handed hitters, 134 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 91.2 mph off the bat against Lucas, 10th percentile.
438 pitches in 2025. 10th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 700th in MLB.
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Lucas projects a .361 average, 20th percentile.
438 pitches in 2025. 20th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 628th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
43.8% of the contact Lucas gives up is hit hard, 32nd percentile.
438 pitches in 2025. 32nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 530th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Lucas's stuff spins at 2,052 rpm, 11th percentile in the league.
438 pitches in 2025. 11th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2025, 695th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Lucas throws 42.9% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 48.3% with the bases empty.
84 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 354 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Lucas releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 37 degrees above horizontal and 2.1 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
438 tracked release points, averaging 6.0 feet off the ground.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
18.3% of Lucas's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
80 of 438 located pitches.
Blue Jays
Career team 2024–2025