When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Lynch IV throws a fastball 69.6% of the time, against 34.4% when he is ahead.
69 pitches behind in the count, 93 ahead.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .342 expected average against them, against .211 on his fastballs.
96 of his breaking balls thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Lynch IV's sinker moves 16.7 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
83 thrown, averaging 94.2 mph.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Lynch IV's changeup leaves the bat at 89.7 mph, against 75.8 off his sinker.
59 and 83 of them thrown.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Lynch IV throws the changeup 35.8% of the time against right-handers and 1.6% against left-handers.
159 pitches to right-handers, 124 to left-handers.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Lynch IV's 4-seam fastball carries 16.2 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
45 thrown, averaging 94.3 mph.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Lynch IV goes to the slider: 37.3% of his two-strike pitches, against 22.5% the rest of the time.
83 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
13.4% of Lynch IV's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
38 of 283 located pitches.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Lynch IV throws 35.7% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 42.3% with the bases empty.
70 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 213 with the bases empty.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Lynch IV projects a .263 average, 91st percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 91st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 48th in MLB.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Lynch IV is weak: 84.6 mph off the bat on average, 89th percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 58th in MLB.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Lynch IV lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.22 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
283 located pitches in 2026.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Lynch IV works off the plate, with only 40.6% of his pitches in the zone, 27th percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 27th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 392nd in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Lynch IV works with 5 pitches: Sinker, Slider, Changeup and 4-Seam Fastball, and a little else. The sinker is 29.3% of everything he throws.
283 classified pitches in 2026.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Lynch IV lands 52.5% of his offspeed pitches in the zone and only 36.7% of his fastballs.
59 of his offspeed pitches, 128 of his fastballs.
Almost nothing hit off him is hit well
Only 30% of the contact Lynch IV gives up is hit hard, 87th percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 87th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 69th in MLB.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Lynch IV releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 42 degrees above horizontal and 1.5 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
283 tracked release points, averaging 5.9 feet off the ground.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Lynch IV's stuff spins at 2,123 rpm, 24th percentile in the league.
283 pitches in 2026. 24th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 406th in MLB.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Lynch IV throws a strike on the first pitch 63% of the time.
73 plate appearances started in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Lynch IV's sinker averages 94.2 mph, and has touched 97.1.
83 thrown, 29.3% of his pitches.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Lynch IV puts 53.6% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 45.2% when he is ahead.
69 located pitches behind, 93 ahead.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Lynch IV releases the ball 6.3 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
221 tracked pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Lynch IV's 4-seam fastball spins at 2,319 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
45 thrown in 2026.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
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When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Lynch IV throws a fastball 69.6% of the time, against 34.4% when he is ahead.
69 pitches behind in the count, 93 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Lynch IV goes to the slider: 37.3% of his two-strike pitches, against 22.5% the rest of the time.
83 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He gets ahead early and pitches from in front all night
Lynch IV throws a strike on the first pitch 63% of the time.
73 plate appearances started in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Lynch IV puts 53.6% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 45.2% when he is ahead.
69 located pitches behind, 93 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .342 expected average against them, against .211 on his fastballs.
96 of his breaking balls thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Lynch IV lands 52.5% of his offspeed pitches in the zone and only 36.7% of his fastballs.
59 of his offspeed pitches, 128 of his fastballs.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Lynch IV's sinker moves 16.7 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
83 thrown, averaging 94.2 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Lynch IV's 4-seam fastball carries 16.2 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
45 thrown, averaging 94.3 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Lynch IV's changeup leaves the bat at 89.7 mph, against 75.8 off his sinker.
59 and 83 of them thrown.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Lynch IV throws the changeup 35.8% of the time against right-handers and 1.6% against left-handers.
159 pitches to right-handers, 124 to left-handers.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Lynch IV works with 5 pitches: Sinker, Slider, Changeup and 4-Seam Fastball, and a little else. The sinker is 29.3% of everything he throws.
283 classified pitches in 2026.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Lynch IV's sinker averages 94.2 mph, and has touched 97.1.
83 thrown, 29.3% of his pitches.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Lynch IV's 4-seam fastball spins at 2,319 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
45 thrown in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
13.4% of Lynch IV's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
38 of 283 located pitches.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Lynch IV lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.22 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
283 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
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He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Lynch IV throws 35.7% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 42.3% with the bases empty.
70 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 213 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
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The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Lynch IV projects a .263 average, 91st percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 91st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 48th in MLB.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Lynch IV is weak: 84.6 mph off the bat on average, 89th percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 58th in MLB.
Almost nothing hit off him is hit well
Only 30% of the contact Lynch IV gives up is hit hard, 87th percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 87th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 69th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Lynch IV works off the plate, with only 40.6% of his pitches in the zone, 27th percentile.
283 pitches in 2026. 27th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 392nd in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Lynch IV releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 42 degrees above horizontal and 1.5 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
283 tracked release points, averaging 5.9 feet off the ground.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Lynch IV releases the ball 6.3 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
221 tracked pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Lynch IV's stuff spins at 2,123 rpm, 24th percentile in the league.
283 pitches in 2026. 24th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 406th in MLB.
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