When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Holmes throws a fastball 84.5% of the time, against 32.6% when he is ahead.
200 pitches behind in the count, 270 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Holmes goes to the changeup: 29.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 8.6% the rest of the time.
235 two-strike pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Holmes's sweeper moves 17.1 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
157 thrown, averaging 82.0 mph.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Holmes's changeup leaves the bat at 93.9 mph, against 83.1 off his cutter.
121 and 58 of them thrown.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Holmes lands 50.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 25.6% of his offspeed pitches.
477 of his fastballs, 121 of his offspeed pitches.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Holmes lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.12 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
828 located pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Holmes's curveball carries 15.1 inches of drop against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
73 thrown, averaging 81.6 mph.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Holmes's curveball spins at 2,956 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
73 thrown in 2026.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Holmes's fastball averages 93.5 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 92.3 past his 75th.
152 early fastballs, 88 late ones.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Holmes throws 38.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44% with the bases empty.
141 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 687 with the bases empty.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .344 expected average against them, against .284 on his breaking balls.
121 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Holmes puts 61.5% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 38.1% when he is ahead.
200 located pitches behind, 270 ahead.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Holmes puts 45.4% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.3% of his pitches to left-handers.
337 pitches to right-handed hitters, 491 to left-handed hitters.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Holmes works with 5 pitches: Sinker, Sweeper, Changeup and Curveball, and a little else. The sinker is 50.5% of everything he throws.
828 classified pitches in 2026.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Holmes releases the ball 5.9 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
651 tracked pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Holmes throws the changeup 21.6% of the time against left-handers and 4.5% against right-handers.
337 pitches to right-handers, 491 to left-handers.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 89.8 mph off the bat against Holmes, 29th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 380th in MLB.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
12.1 mph separates Holmes's sinker from his curveball, 93.7 against 81.6.
418 and 73 of them respectively.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Holmes releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 57 degrees above horizontal and 1.2 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
828 tracked release points, averaging 6.3 feet off the ground.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Holmes's stuff spins at 2,182 rpm, 33rd percentile in the league.
828 pitches in 2026. 33rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 359th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
44% of the contact Holmes gives up is hit hard, 30th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 30th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 374th in MLB.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
18.5% of Holmes's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
153 of 828 located pitches.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Holmes's sinker averages 93.7 mph, and has touched 96.8.
418 thrown, 50.5% of his pitches.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Holmes throws a fastball 84.5% of the time, against 32.6% when he is ahead.
200 pitches behind in the count, 270 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Holmes goes to the changeup: 29.8% of his two-strike pitches, against 8.6% the rest of the time.
235 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Holmes puts 61.5% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 38.1% when he is ahead.
200 located pitches behind, 270 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Holmes's sweeper moves 17.1 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
157 thrown, averaging 82.0 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Holmes's curveball carries 15.1 inches of drop against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
73 thrown, averaging 81.6 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Holmes's changeup leaves the bat at 93.9 mph, against 83.1 off his cutter.
121 and 58 of them thrown.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Holmes's curveball spins at 2,956 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
73 thrown in 2026.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Holmes works with 5 pitches: Sinker, Sweeper, Changeup and Curveball, and a little else. The sinker is 50.5% of everything he throws.
828 classified pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Holmes throws the changeup 21.6% of the time against left-handers and 4.5% against right-handers.
337 pitches to right-handers, 491 to left-handers.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
12.1 mph separates Holmes's sinker from his curveball, 93.7 against 81.6.
418 and 73 of them respectively.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Holmes's sinker averages 93.7 mph, and has touched 96.8.
418 thrown, 50.5% of his pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Holmes lands 50.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 25.6% of his offspeed pitches.
477 of his fastballs, 121 of his offspeed pitches.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .344 expected average against them, against .284 on his breaking balls.
121 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Holmes lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.12 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
828 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
18.5% of Holmes's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
153 of 828 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Holmes's fastball averages 93.5 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 92.3 past his 75th.
152 early fastballs, 88 late ones.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Holmes releases the ball 5.9 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
651 tracked pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Holmes releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 57 degrees above horizontal and 1.2 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
828 tracked release points, averaging 6.3 feet off the ground.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Holmes throws 38.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44% with the bases empty.
141 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 687 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Holmes puts 45.4% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.3% of his pitches to left-handers.
337 pitches to right-handed hitters, 491 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 89.8 mph off the bat against Holmes, 29th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 380th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
44% of the contact Holmes gives up is hit hard, 30th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 30th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 374th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Holmes's stuff spins at 2,182 rpm, 33rd percentile in the league.
828 pitches in 2026. 33rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 359th in MLB.
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