When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Holmes throws a fastball 81.8% of the time, against 36.1% when he is ahead.
456 pitches behind in the count, 460 ahead.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Holmes's changeup leaves the bat at 92.2 mph, against 83.0 off his curveball.
231 and 111 of them thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Holmes's sweeper moves 16.3 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
305 thrown, averaging 81.3 mph.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Holmes lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.07 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
1613 located pitches in 2026.
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Holmes lands 50.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 25.6% of his offspeed pitches.
477 of his fastballs, 121 of his offspeed pitches.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Holmes goes to the changeup: 25.7% of his two-strike pitches, against 10.1% the rest of the time.
439 two-strike pitches in 2026.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Holmes's fastball averages 92.7 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 91.1 past his 75th.
292 early fastballs, 163 late ones.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Holmes's curveball carries 14.8 inches of drop against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
111 thrown, averaging 81.1 mph.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Holmes's curveball spins at 2,948 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
111 thrown in 2026.
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Holmes throws 38.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44% with the bases empty.
141 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 687 with the bases empty.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Holmes releases the ball 5.8 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
1436 tracked pitches in 2026.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .344 expected average against them, against .284 on his breaking balls.
121 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Holmes puts 45.4% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.3% of his pitches to left-handers.
337 pitches to right-handed hitters, 491 to left-handed hitters.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Holmes works with 5 pitches: Sinker, Sweeper, Changeup and Cutter, and a little else. The sinker is 48.8% of everything he throws.
1613 classified pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Holmes puts 56.1% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 36.5% when he is ahead.
456 located pitches behind, 460 ahead.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Holmes throws the changeup 20.6% of the time against left-handers and 3.2% against right-handers.
586 pitches to right-handers, 1027 to left-handers.
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 89.8 mph off the bat against Holmes, 29th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 380th in MLB.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
17.2% of Holmes's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
278 of 1613 located pitches.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Holmes releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 59 degrees above horizontal and 1.0 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
1613 tracked release points, averaging 6.2 feet off the ground.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
12.0 mph separates Holmes's sinker from his curveball, 93.1 against 81.1.
787 and 111 of them respectively.
His ball is straighter than it should be
Holmes's stuff spins at 2,182 rpm, 33rd percentile in the league.
828 pitches in 2026. 33rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 359th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
44% of the contact Holmes gives up is hit hard, 30th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 30th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 374th in MLB.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Holmes's sinker averages 93.1 mph, and has touched 96.8.
787 thrown, 48.8% of his pitches.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Holmes has thrown 16 4-seam fastballs this season, 1% of his pitches, at 93.0 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
1613 classified pitches in 2026.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Holmes throws a fastball 81.8% of the time, against 36.1% when he is ahead.
456 pitches behind in the count, 460 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Holmes goes to the changeup: 25.7% of his two-strike pitches, against 10.1% the rest of the time.
439 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Holmes puts 56.1% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 36.5% when he is ahead.
456 located pitches behind, 460 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Holmes's changeup leaves the bat at 92.2 mph, against 83.0 off his curveball.
231 and 111 of them thrown.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Holmes's curveball spins at 2,948 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
111 thrown in 2026.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Holmes works with 5 pitches: Sinker, Sweeper, Changeup and Cutter, and a little else. The sinker is 48.8% of everything he throws.
1613 classified pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Holmes throws the changeup 20.6% of the time against left-handers and 3.2% against right-handers.
586 pitches to right-handers, 1027 to left-handers.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
12.0 mph separates Holmes's sinker from his curveball, 93.1 against 81.1.
787 and 111 of them respectively.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Holmes's sinker averages 93.1 mph, and has touched 96.8.
787 thrown, 48.8% of his pitches.
One pitch exists only to make the hitter think
Holmes has thrown 16 4-seam fastballs this season, 1% of his pitches, at 93.0 mph: a look rather than a weapon.
1613 classified pitches in 2026.
Show more
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Holmes's sweeper moves 16.3 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
305 thrown, averaging 81.3 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Holmes's curveball carries 14.8 inches of drop against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
111 thrown, averaging 81.1 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Holmes lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.07 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
1613 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
17.2% of Holmes's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
278 of 1613 located pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He throws strikes to one type of hitter and not the other
Holmes lands 50.7% of his fastballs in the zone and only 25.6% of his offspeed pitches.
477 of his fastballs, 121 of his offspeed pitches.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his offspeed pitches: a .344 expected average against them, against .284 on his breaking balls.
121 of his offspeed pitches thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Holmes's fastball averages 92.7 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 91.1 past his 75th.
292 early fastballs, 163 late ones.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Holmes releases the ball 5.8 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
1436 tracked pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Holmes releases the ball from a three-quarters slot, about 59 degrees above horizontal and 1.0 feet to the third-base side of the rubber.
1613 tracked release points, averaging 6.2 feet off the ground.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches around the zone once runners are on
Holmes throws 38.3% of his pitches in the zone with a runner in scoring position and 44% with the bases empty.
141 pitches with a runner in scoring position, 687 with the bases empty.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Holmes puts 45.4% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.3% of his pitches to left-handers.
337 pitches to right-handed hitters, 491 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
When hitters connect off him, they hit it hard
Hitters average 89.8 mph off the bat against Holmes, 29th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 29th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 380th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
44% of the contact Holmes gives up is hit hard, 30th percentile.
828 pitches in 2026. 30th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 374th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball is straighter than it should be
Holmes's stuff spins at 2,182 rpm, 33rd percentile in the league.
828 pitches in 2026. 33rd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 359th in MLB.
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