When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kay throws a fastball 68.6% of the time, against 43.5% when he is ahead.
780 pitches behind in the count, 787 ahead.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kay's sinker leaves the bat at 91.0 mph, against 82.8 off his cutter.
498 and 447 of them thrown.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kay's sinker moves 16.0 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
498 thrown, averaging 95.3 mph.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .380 expected average against them, against .299 on his offspeed pitches.
494 of his fastballs thrown.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kay goes to the slider: 16.5% of his two-strike pitches, against 1.8% the rest of the time.
832 two-strike pitches in 2026.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kay throws the sinker 37.9% of the time against left-handers and 10.4% against right-handers.
2034 pitches to right-handers, 754 to left-handers.
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kay lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.17 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
2787 located pitches in 2026.
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kay releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 34 degrees above horizontal and 2.1 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
2787 tracked release points, averaging 5.6 feet off the ground.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kay's 4-seam fastball carries 14.3 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
614 thrown, averaging 95.9 mph.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kay's 4-seam fastball averages 95.9 mph, and has touched 99.2.
614 thrown, 22% of his pitches.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kay puts 57.7% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 32.1% when he is ahead.
780 located pitches behind, 787 ahead.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Kay releases the ball 5.9 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
2601 tracked pitches in 2026.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Kay works off the plate, with only 40.7% of his pitches in the zone, 28th percentile.
792 pitches in 2026. 28th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 389th in MLB.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kay works with 6 pitches: Sweeper, 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker and Cutter, and a little else. The sweeper is 23.6% of everything he throws.
2788 classified pitches in 2026.
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Kay projects a .357 average, 22nd percentile.
792 pitches in 2026. 22nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 418th in MLB.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
16.8% of Kay's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
469 of 2787 located pitches.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Kay's fastball averages 94.8 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 93.9 past his 75th.
469 early fastballs, 228 late ones.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
13.2 mph separates Kay's 4-seam fastball from his sweeper, 95.9 against 82.7.
614 and 658 of them respectively.
He lives on one side of the plate
Kay works away from right-handers: his average pitch lands 1.7 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
2787 located pitches in 2026.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kay's slider spins at 2,562 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
172 thrown in 2026.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
42.4% of the contact Kay gives up is hit hard, 36th percentile.
792 pitches in 2026. 36th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 343rd in MLB.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Kay throws a fastball 68.6% of the time, against 43.5% when he is ahead.
780 pitches behind in the count, 787 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Kay goes to the slider: 16.5% of his two-strike pitches, against 1.8% the rest of the time.
832 two-strike pitches in 2026.
How much of the zone he uses depends on the count
Kay puts 57.7% of his pitches in the zone when he is behind and 32.1% when he is ahead.
780 located pitches behind, 787 ahead.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Kay's sinker leaves the bat at 91.0 mph, against 82.8 off his cutter.
498 and 447 of them thrown.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Kay throws the sinker 37.9% of the time against left-handers and 10.4% against right-handers.
2034 pitches to right-handers, 754 to left-handers.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Kay's 4-seam fastball averages 95.9 mph, and has touched 99.2.
614 thrown, 22% of his pitches.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Kay works with 6 pitches: Sweeper, 4-Seam Fastball, Sinker and Cutter, and a little else. The sweeper is 23.6% of everything he throws.
2788 classified pitches in 2026.
The gap between his pitches is what makes them work
13.2 mph separates Kay's 4-seam fastball from his sweeper, 95.9 against 82.7.
614 and 658 of them respectively.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Kay's slider spins at 2,562 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
172 thrown in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Kay's sinker moves 16.0 inches toward the first-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
498 thrown, averaging 95.3 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Kay's 4-seam fastball carries 14.3 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
614 thrown, averaging 95.9 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his fastballs: a .380 expected average against them, against .299 on his offspeed pitches.
494 of his fastballs thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He works one part of the zone far more than the rest
Kay lives at the bottom of the zone: his average pitch crosses at 2.17 feet, against a zone that runs 1.5 to 3.5.
2787 located pitches in 2026.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
16.8% of Kay's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
469 of 2787 located pitches.
He lives on one side of the plate
Kay works away from right-handers: his average pitch lands 1.7 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
2787 located pitches in 2026.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
The angle he throws from is unusual, and hitters notice
Kay releases the ball from a low three-quarters slot, about 34 degrees above horizontal and 2.1 feet to the first-base side of the rubber.
2787 tracked release points, averaging 5.6 feet off the ground.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Kay releases the ball 5.9 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
2601 tracked pitches in 2026.
His velocity drains away as the outing goes on
Kay's fastball averages 94.8 mph in his first 25 pitches of a start and 93.9 past his 75th.
469 early fastballs, 228 late ones.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Kay works off the plate, with only 40.7% of his pitches in the zone, 28th percentile.
792 pitches in 2026. 28th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 389th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
The contact he allows is the kind that finds grass
The quality of contact against Kay projects a .357 average, 22nd percentile.
792 pitches in 2026. 22nd percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 418th in MLB.
Too much of the contact against him is loud
42.4% of the contact Kay gives up is hit hard, 36th percentile.
792 pitches in 2026. 36th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2026, 343rd in MLB.
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