He falls behind hitters far too often
Nelson throws a strike on the first pitch 46.3% of the time.
134 plate appearances started in 2021.
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Nelson's slider moves 73.0 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
207 thrown, averaging 86.5 mph.
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Nelson throws the knuckle curve 50.2% of the time against left-handers and 19.9% against right-handers.
342 pitches to right-handers, 275 to left-handers.
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,833 rpm, 100th percentile in the league.
617 pitches in 2021. 100th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 2nd in MLB.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Nelson throws a fastball 42.6% of the time, against 22.1% when he is ahead.
209 pitches behind in the count, 154 ahead.
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Nelson projects a .256 average, 97th percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 97th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 22nd in MLB.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Nelson's 4-seam fastball carries 15.4 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
194 thrown, averaging 93.8 mph.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Nelson's slider spins at 2,963 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
207 thrown in 2021.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Nelson is weak: 83.7 mph off the bat on average, 96th percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 96th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 32nd in MLB.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Nelson goes to the slider: 42.6% of his two-strike pitches, against 29.6% the rest of the time.
188 two-strike pitches in 2021.
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .277 expected average against them, against .225 on his fastballs.
415 of his breaking balls thrown.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Nelson works with 3 pitches: Slider, Knuckle Curve and 4-Seam Fastball. The slider is 33.5% of everything he throws.
617 classified pitches in 2021.
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
16.5% of Nelson's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
102 of 617 located pitches.
Almost nothing hit off him is hit well
Only 30.9% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 89th percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 91st in MLB.
He cannot find the zone often enough
Nelson works off the plate, with only 43.3% of his pitches in the zone, 31st percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 557th in MLB.
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Nelson puts 44.4% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.8% of his pitches to left-handers.
342 pitches to right-handed hitters, 275 to left-handed hitters.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Nelson's knuckle curve leaves the bat at 85.3 mph, against 82.1 off his slider.
206 and 207 of them thrown.
He lives on one side of the plate
Nelson works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 1.5 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
617 located pitches in 2021.
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Nelson releases the ball 6.3 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
617 tracked pitches in 2021.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Nelson's 4-seam fastball averages 93.8 mph, and has touched 96.6.
194 thrown, 31.4% of his pitches.
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The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He falls behind hitters far too often
Nelson throws a strike on the first pitch 46.3% of the time.
134 plate appearances started in 2021.
When he falls behind, hitters know exactly what is coming
Behind in the count Nelson throws a fastball 42.6% of the time, against 22.1% when he is ahead.
209 pitches behind in the count, 154 ahead.
This is the pitch he goes to when he needs the out
With two strikes Nelson goes to the slider: 42.6% of his two-strike pitches, against 29.6% the rest of the time.
188 two-strike pitches in 2021.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One pitch of his runs sideways more than almost anyone's
Nelson's slider moves 73.0 inches toward the third-base side, the biggest horizontal move in his arsenal.
207 thrown, averaging 86.5 mph.
One pitch of his moves in a way hitters rarely see
Nelson's 4-seam fastball carries 15.4 inches of ride against a spinless ball, the biggest vertical move in his arsenal.
194 thrown, averaging 93.8 mph.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He saves one pitch for one side of the plate
Nelson throws the knuckle curve 50.2% of the time against left-handers and 19.9% against right-handers.
342 pitches to right-handers, 275 to left-handers.
One pitch of his spins more than almost anyone's
Nelson's slider spins at 2,963 rpm, the highest in his arsenal.
207 thrown in 2021.
His pitches move in ways that fit together
Nelson works with 3 pitches: Slider, Knuckle Curve and 4-Seam Fastball. The slider is 33.5% of everything he throws.
617 classified pitches in 2021.
There is one pitch of his that keeps getting hit
Contact off Nelson's knuckle curve leaves the bat at 85.3 mph, against 82.1 off his slider.
206 and 207 of them thrown.
His fastball is the pitch everything else is built on
Nelson's 4-seam fastball averages 93.8 mph, and has touched 96.6.
194 thrown, 31.4% of his pitches.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
His ball moves more than the hitter expects it to
Nelson's stuff spins at 2,833 rpm, 100th percentile in the league.
617 pitches in 2021. 100th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 2nd in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Spray Chart.
Take me there
The contact he allows should not turn into many hits
The quality of contact against Nelson projects a .256 average, 97th percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 97th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 22nd in MLB.
Hitters cannot square him up, the contact is weak
Contact against Nelson is weak: 83.7 mph off the bat on average, 96th percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 96th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 32nd in MLB.
Almost nothing hit off him is hit well
Only 30.9% of the contact Nelson gives up is hit hard, 89th percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 89th percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 91st in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
One type of hitter does all the damage against him
Hitters do their damage on his breaking balls: a .277 expected average against them, against .225 on his fastballs.
415 of his breaking balls thrown.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He lives on the edges rather than over the middle
16.5% of Nelson's pitches land in the middle third of the zone, well below what most pitchers give away.
102 of 617 located pitches.
He lives on one side of the plate
Nelson works in on right-handers: his average pitch lands 1.5 inches to that side of the middle of the plate.
617 located pitches in 2021.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He cannot find the zone often enough
Nelson works off the plate, with only 43.3% of his pitches in the zone, 31st percentile.
617 pitches in 2021. 31st percentile among qualified pitchers in 2021, 557th in MLB.
The numbers behind these live in Matchups.
Take me there
He pitches differently depending on which hand is up
Nelson puts 44.4% of his pitches to right-handers in the zone and 41.8% of his pitches to left-handers.
342 pitches to right-handed hitters, 275 to left-handed hitters.
The numbers behind these live in Pitch Data.
Take me there
He releases the ball about where everyone else does
Nelson releases the ball 6.3 feet down the mound, a shorter stride than most.
617 tracked pitches in 2021.
Brewers
Career team 2013–2019